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country that has remained under the spotlight since a long time is Iran. Iran
has been consistently having belligerent relationships with the United States
since Donald Trump withdrew the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) and tightened the economic noose around Iran. Iran has been
known to retaliate the action of US which had taken a rather catastrophic form
of a drone attack on the Saudi Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia. This post tries
to put the changing sands of Iran under the microscope, right from its
foundation back in 1979 to present day.
On September 14 2019,
two facilities of Saudi Aramco faced a nasty drone attack which wiped out half
the company’s oil production. The attack was carried out by Yemen’s Houthi
rebels who were allegedly being sponsored by Iran. The energy markets quickly
reacted to this news and oil prices skyrocketed thereby facing a 30-year high. The
question still remains: Did Iran have enough reasons to pull off something like
this? Was it a move targeting USA’s decision to impose sanctions on nations
importing oil on Iran? To analyze Iran’s relations with the USA and its growing
power in the Middle East, let us go back into the 1970s when it all began.
In 1979, Iran remained
at the brink of a massive upheaval following the protests of opponent groups
against the USA- backed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Supreme Rule of Iran. Pehalvi
brought about massive transformations in the economy which was referred to as
the White Revolution. The White Revolution helped redistribute the land to 2.5
million families, revamped the education system and also supported nationwide
enfranchisement of women. Despite
supporting the economy through reforms, Pahlavi was accused by the opposition groups
of irreligion and frequent subservience to the foreign powers. The White
Revolution programme led to rapid westernization of economy; however its
benefits did not reach all. His policies were seriously criticized when global
financial stability and volatility in oil consumption seriously hurt Iranian economy
from all sides. His exile paved way for Ayatollah Khomeini to make his place as
the new Supreme leader and Iran was proclaimed on April 1, 1979. The Iranian
Revolution badly poisoned the US-Iran relations whose ripples were felt
immediately when US embassy was seized in 1979 by Iranian militants. The
Khomeini supporters resented the US presence and its continuous interference in
Iranian state of affairs. The US retaliated by its refusal to purchase oil from
Iran and froze billions of dollars worth Iranian assets in the United States.
Eventually, post the talks that were spread across two years, Iranian hostages
were released in 1981, minutes after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as the
President of the United States. In subsequent years, during the Iraq-Iran war,
the United States extended its active support to the Iraqi leader Saddam
Hussein which lead to the war being an unnecessary drag for 8 years claiming
enormous lives. However July 3, 1988 was the date when US-Iran relations went
under a sledgehammer whose aftershocks continue to be felt even today. A navy ship named
Vincennes was patrolling the Persian Gulf when it shot down Iranian airplane Air
Flight 655 which had 290 civilians onboard. The US states that Vincennes
misunderstood the plane for an F-14 fighter jet. However Tehran still views
this incident as purposeful and is one of major reasons for its antagonistic
behavior towards the United States.
The final nail in the
coffin was when the current President of the United States, Donald Trump pulled
out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) furthering sanctions on
Iranian economy. However, to understand about the JCPOA, first let us go back
to the time when these seeds were first sown. In 1957, nuclear programme was
first established under US Atoms for
Peace initiative. Post which, in 1974, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi announced a target of
23,000 Mwe of nuclear capability in order to reduce the reliance on oil and gas
exports. With this, 4 units were constructed in Bushehar and 2 units in Istehan
in order to grow its nuclear prowess. Eventually, Iran started developing its
own uranium enrichment capabilities which was heavily censured by United
Nations citing no evident commercial end-use. Iran’s overpowering nuclear arsenal was major
cause of concern for many countries which led to sanctions on Iran.
Eventually, China,
France, Russia, the UK, the United States, Germany and the European Union
entered into an international agreement with Iran in order to trade the
economic sanctions with Iran’s nuclear capacity. According to the JCPOA deal, Iran
agreed to bring down the uranium enrichment capability to 3.67%. The 20,000
centrifuges, which were used for enrichment purposes, were significantly
brought down to 6,104 older model centrifuges and the stockpile was also reduced
to 300 kg from excessive 9000 kg. The deal also allowed foreign experts to
inspect the nuclear sites in Iran any time without prior approval or paperwork.
On hindsight, the deal was a best-fit for all the participants till the time
when Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal. In 2017, he stated "The Iranian regime supports terrorism
and exports violence, bloodshed and chaos across the Middle East. That is why
we must put an end to Iran's continued aggression and nuclear ambitions. They
have not lived up to the spirit of their agreement." However, he has
still left the White House open for talks with Iran. With the US withdrawing
the deal, the economic noose was tightened on Iran’s ability to export
commercial aircrafts, carpets, petrochemicals, oil, food and precious materials
to the US markets.
With last rounds of
sanctions, Iran’s oil industry took the blow with the supplies taking a serious
hit as the oil prices began to skyrocket. The reactions to the current state of
affairs are ugly as Iran has allegedly sponsored Yemen's Houthi rebels to attack
facilities of Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia. The US has also blamed Iran for
mining of two oil tankers in Gulf of Oman apparently to exercise its influence
in Strait of Hormuz. With this US-Iran relations taking a turn for the worse,
especially for energy segment, the discussion seems to be the only way to affix
on the long term solution ahead.
* The opinions expressed in the article are personal and do not represent the opinions of the organization I work for *
